U.S. LNG Exports Make History
02.20.2017 - NEWS

February 20, 2017 [OPIS] - U.S.-produced liquefied natural gas (LNG) is poised to shape a new era in global energy markets, after a record set in 2016 when exports outpaced imports for the first time since the mid-1990s.


Statistics issued today by the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy showed 186.46 billion cubic feet (bcf) of LNG exported in 2016, primarily out of Cheniere’s Sabine Pass facility since Feb. 24 last year when the first cargo set sail.

Imports for calendar 2016 were 84.55 bcf, all from Trinidad save for one inbound cargo out of Norway.

The 2016 export total surpasses the previous record of 70 bcf set in 2011, in U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) annals stretching back to 1985.

With President Donald Trump’s administration expected to drive a U.S.-centric energy policy and facilities other than Cheniere expected to join the list of exporters, the 2016 statistics augur well for the nation’s LNG exports and put the U.S. on track to potentially surpass stalwarts such as Australia within the next decade.

DOE statistics show LNG exports for December setting an all-time record of 41.8 bcf, which broke the earlier record of 32.9 bcf set in November. The figures reflect the end of planned maintenance at Sabine Pass in October, alongside the near-simultaneous activation of a second train.

Trade expectations call for January 2017 exports to continue higher as well.

Nations that imported U.S. LNG last year span the globe, including pockets in the Middle Eastern backyard of global LNG export leader Qatar. Chile was the biggest single exporter, with 29.4 bcf on 10 cargoes, followed by Mexico with 27.47 bcf on nine cargoes. China was a notable buyer, importing 17.22 bcf, as was India with 16.91 bcf.

U.S. LNG imports ramped up in the early 2000s and were seen as a sunrise industry, with an armada of LNG tankers built by the world’s ship owners for the purpose. Imports peaked at 770.81 bcf in 2007, completing five straight years of 500 bcf-plus prints.

This market shriveled in the aftermath of the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Imports set a recent low in 2014 at 59.28 bcf.

Meanwhile, the U.S. shale revolution, investments in liquefaction capacity by companies such as Cheniere, and repurposing terminals originally intended for imports into export berths created the dynamics for a complete U-turn in LNG trades. The first export cargo to leave the U.S. mainland went to Brazil a year ago.

U.S. LNG is expected to play a role in reshaping trade and pricing economics. The original business model is fixed-term supply relationships between producers and customers, with LNG tankers constructed to fulfil these needs. The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its World Energy Outlook last fall predicted a “marked change” from this system, including the advent of a spot market.

“[There will be] more competitive and flexible arrangements, including greater reliance on prices set by gas-to-gas competition,” the IEA states. “This shift is catalyzed by the increasing availability of footloose U.S. LNG cargoes and the arrival in the 2020s of other new exporters, notably in East Africa, as well as the diversity brought to global supply by the continued, if uneven, spread of the unconventional gas revolution.

“Markets, business models and pricing arrangements are all in flux. A more flexible global market, linked by a doubling of trade in LNG, supports an expanded role for gas in the global mix,” the IEA notes.

The IEA identifies China and the Middle East as the largest sources of LNG growth demand, and for LNG’s share of long-distance gas trade to grow from 42% in 2014 to 53% in 2040.

With 130 cubic meters (cbm) of liquefaction capacity under construction, primarily in the U.S. and Australia, the LNG market is seen as over-supplied.

But the IEA still warns of a “hard landing” for end-users after this oversupply is absorbed, assuming that uncertainty surrounding the LNG revolution triggers delays in future upstream and transportation projects.

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