The global LNG market is also changing gradually, reflecting more shorter term contract and smaller purchased volume flexibility, the company said. China and India are the largest LNG buyers in terms of volumes in 2016, and Egypt, Jordan and Pakistan are the fastest growing buyers, it said.

The outlook for global LNG demand is set to grow at twice the rate of gas demand, at 4% to 5% a year between 2015 and 2030, according to Maarten Wetselaar, integrated gas and new energies director at Shell.

“Global LNG trade demonstrated its flexibility time and again in 2016, responding to shortfalls in national and regional gas supply and to new emerging demand,” he said.

Global demand for LNG reached 265 million tons (MT) in 2016 – enough to supply power to around 500 million homes a year, Shell said. This included an increase in net LNG imports of 17 MT.

Many expected a strong increase in new LNG supplies would outpace demand growth during 2016. Instead, demand growth kept pace with supply as greater-than-expected demand in Asia and the Middle East absorbed the increase in supply from Australia, according to Shell.

Shell said that China and India – which are set to continue driving a rise in demand – were two of the fastest growing buyers, increasing their imports by a combined 11.9 MT of LNG in 2016. This boosted China’s LNG imports in 2016 to 27 MT and India’s to 20 MT.

The oil major said that total global LNG demand increased following the
addition of six new importing countries since 2015: Colombia, Egypt, Jamaica, Jordan, Pakistan and Poland. They brought the number of LNG importers to 35, up from around 10 at the start of this century.

Egypt, Jordan and Pakistan were among the fastest growing LNG importers in the world in 2016, it said. Due to local shortages in gas supplies, they imported 13.9 MT of LNG in total.

Shell said that the bulk of growth in LNG exports in 2016 came from Australia, where exports increased by 15 MT to a total of 44.3 MT. It was also a significant year for the U.S., after 2.9 MT of LNG was delivered from the
Sabine Pass terminal in Louisiana, it said.

LNG prices are expected to continue to be determined by multiple factors, including oil prices, global LNG supply and demand dynamics and the costs of new LNG facilities, according to the report. In addition, the growth of LNG trade has evolved into helping meet demand when domestic gas markets face supply shortages.

LNG trade also is changing to meet the needs of buyers, including shorter-term and lower-volume contracts with greater degrees of flexibility, Shell said. Some emerging LNG buyers have more challenging credit ratings than traditional buyers.

While the industry has been flexible in developing new demand, there has been a decrease in final investment decisions for new supply, the report said.

Shell believes further investments will need to be made by the industry to meet growing demand, most of which is set to come from Asia, after 2020.

In China, a government target has been set for gas to make up 15% of the country’s energy mix by 2030, up from 5% in 2015, Shell said. Meanwhile, Southeast Asia is projected to become a net importer of LNG by 2035, a significant transformation for a region which includes Malaysia and Indonesia – currently among the major LNG exporters in the world.

Shell’s first LNG Outlook draws on a broad range of independent industry data and internal analysis.