EIA Says Gulf Crude Storage 75% Full
04.18.2014 - NEWS

April 18, 2014 [OPIS] - West Texas crude oil futures prices are boldly defiant in the face of mounting crude oil supplies that by the Department of Energy's latest count bulged 10 million barrels. 


Supplies in the Gulf Coast reached 207 million barrels, an all-time record, fueling an extended debate over how much storage is left in the Gulf before capacity is maxed out.

When DOE released its weekly statistics, CIBC Macro Strategy Commodities estimated that Gulf Coast storage tanks are 82% full, meaning that there is roughly just 35 million barrels of additional storage left.

Now the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) has added its voice to the chorus of those weighing in on the storage count.

EIA says that total working crude oil storage on the U.S. Gulf Coast totaled 273.3 million barrels as of Sept. 30, when the agency did its last authoritative count.

Tank farm storage accounted for 200.5 million barrels of that capacity and storage at refineries accounted for 72.9 million barrels. EIA does not include a pipeline capacity number in its working storage capacity estimate.

Using EIA’s numbers, that would put current Gulf Coast crude stocks at roughly 75% of capacity, leaving about 66 million barrels of space left to store crude, almost double CIBC’s estimate.

None of this takes into account the ability to store crude in tankers if need be, albeit an expensive practice that is hard to justify in a sharply downgraded forward market.

Regardless of whose numbers you use, Gulf Coast storage capacity could reach its limits later in the summer, especially if inventory continues to build at the pace it has expanded the last six weeks.

EIA doesn’t mince words in describing the current rate of the supply build. “This year’s increase has been particularly notable,” says EIA, pointing out that as recently as Jan. 10 Gulf Coast stocks were 161 million barrels.

That’s a weekly rate jump in excess of 5 million barrels, meaning that at the same rate over the next 10 weeks, capacity potentially reaches its limit.

Current Gulf Coast crude stocks exceed the five-year average level by 24.2 million barrels, and they top year-ago levels by 22.2 million barrels.

The recent two months have seen Gulf Coast crude stocks build at double normal rates for the cycle.

The reasons for the build are dissected by EIA, a main driver being the startup of TransCanada’s 700,000-b/d Marketlink Pipeline, which connects Cushing to Houston.

Gulf Coast refiners have also processed below normal rates of crude because of refinery maintenance. Meanwhile, crude imports are up slightly.

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