June 14, 2016 [OPIS] - The European oil demand outlook remains positive this year, due to improving industrial production and robust automotive demand, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its June Monthly Oil Market Report yesterday.
European oil demand continued to grow in the first four months of 2016, particularly during the first quarter, OPEC said in the report, citing an improving economy, colder weather and lower fuel prices in the road transportation sector. The auto market grew by some 9% year on year in April, OPEC said.
Still, unsolved debt issues in a number of European countries plus oil taxation, especially in the transportation sector, are risks to the downside, OPEC said. Preliminary total oil demand data for Germany, France, Italy and the U.K. in April suggests demand declines of 200,000 bbl/day year on year. Slight gains in jet fuel requirements have been largely offset by declines in other main petroleum categories compared with the same month in 2015, with gasoline and gasoil demand down by 4% and 2% respectively.
“The general expectations for the region’s oil demand during 2016 remain cautiously optimistic,” OPEC said in the report. “In 2015, European oil demand grew by 260,000 bbl/day, while oil demand in 2016 is projected to only slightly increase by 10,000 bbl/day.”
Oil supplies for European countries belonging to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development this year was revised up by 30,000 bbl/day this month, leading to an expected total contraction of 50,000 bbl/day to average 3.71 million bbl/day.
Global oil demand growth this year remains unchanged from OPEC’s May monthly report, pegged at 1.20 million bbl/day to average 94.18 million bbl/day for 2016. The forecast for non-OPEC oil supply also remains the same for this year, down by 740,000 bbl/day to average 56.4 million bbl/day, according to OPEC.